1. Intensification of supply and demand in the raw material market
After the Spring Festival, the titanium concentrate and rutile markets continued the hot trend before the holiday. The single-week trading volume in major mining areas increased by 45% year-on-year, and the quotations of imported high-grade rutile reached a new high. According to mineral traders, the current spot inventory at the port has dropped to the lowest level in the past three years. In order to ensure the supply of raw materials, some titanium dioxide companies have adopted an unconventional procurement model of "advance payment + bidding". Industry insiders predict that this structural shortage may continue until the second quarter.
2. The titanium sponge market is trapped in "no market with price"
Although titanium sponge production enterprises maintain a high operating rate, the overall market presents a situation of "no market with price". Leading enterprises strictly implement the sales guidance price of 46,000 yuan/ton, but the actual shipment volume has been reduced compared with the pre-holiday period, resulting in the dilemma of "no rice to cook" faced by small and medium-sized processing enterprises. At the same time, the total inventory of the top ten enterprises in the industry fell by 12% year-on-year, indicating that enterprises may be intentionally controlling supply to maintain price stability.
3. Titanium manufacturing is under obvious pressure
Compared with the hot upstream market, the average capacity utilization rate of titanium production enterprises in the first week after the holiday was only 62%, a record low in the same period in the past five years. The head of a titanium plate company revealed that the current orders on hand can only maintain three weeks of production, and orders in major application fields such as petrochemicals and aerospace have decreased by about 25% year-on-year. However, Yunnan Titanium's move to raise the price of titanium by 3,000 yuan/ton against the trend has attracted widespread attention in the industry, indicating that leading companies are trying to adjust the market structure through price leverage.
4. Processing companies launched a price defense war
Faced with the pressure of reduced orders, some forging and rolling companies took the lead in launching a price war, and processing fees generally decreased by 8% to 12%. Some companies even "accept orders at cost price" to maintain cash flow. This strategy aims to win orders by reducing prices, but it also reflects that insufficient orders have brought huge challenges to the survival of processing companies. The imbalance of the upstream and downstream price transmission mechanism may indicate that the industry is about to enter a period of deep adjustment.
5. Market Trend Outlook
The tight supply of raw materials is difficult to ease in the short term, and it is expected that the price of titanium ore will still have room for an increase of 5% to 8% in March.
The oligopoly effect in the titanium sponge market has increased, and prices may continue to remain high.
The processing fee of titanium materials has shown a clear downward trend, and the elimination of small and medium-sized enterprises has accelerated.
High-end application areas may become the key to market breakthroughs, and technological innovation is imminent.
The current titanium material market is at a critical stage of reshaping the value of the industrial chain. The competition between upstream resource control and downstream technological innovation capabilities will have a profound impact on the industry's competitive landscape in the next five years. Overall, the titanium material market after the holiday presents different market dynamics in the raw materials, production, and processing links. Each company is adjusting its strategy according to its own situation, and future market trends still need to be closely monitored.
