The United States tax increase and export restrictions, titanium market demand differentiation, the corporate crisis intensified
First, market performance: price differentiation and structural contradictions coexist
1. Obvious differentiation of price fluctuations
This week, the titanium market showed a trend of "high-end rise and low-end fall" :
High-end titanium materials (such as titanium alloy plates/rods, aviation-grade titanium tubes) : military and aerospace orders to support, prices rose 1% to 2%. Global supply chain restructuring to promote domestic high-end products to fill the 32,000 tons of demand gap.
Low-end civil titanium (such as chemical pure titanium plate, titanium rod wire) : affected by the downturn in demand in domestic chemical, petroleum and other industries, enterprises sell at low prices to alleviate inventory pressure.
2. Raw material end: Sponge titanium high running, light trading
0# sponge titanium quoted 48,000 ~ 49,000 yuan/ton, 1# sponge titanium 47,000 ~ 48,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week.
Downstream procurement is mainly based on just need, and transactions are depressed, but supported by costs, the space for further price cuts is limited, and the market is deadlocked.
3. Titanium ingot market: cost support and demand differentiation
Pure titanium ingot (TA1) : 57 ~ 58 yuan/kg.
TC4 titanium ingot: 63 ~ 65 yuan/kg.
Military and aviation demand is stable, supporting high-end titanium ingot prices.
The private goods market is depressed, and small and medium-sized enterprises are shipping at low prices to recover funds.
4. Titanium plate, titanium rod, titanium tube, titanium wire market performance
Titanium plate/titanium rod: high-end grades (such as TC4) driven by military orders, the price rose by 1% to 2%; Ordinary pure titanium plate rod due to the downturn in the chemical industry, the price pressure.
Titanium tube: the overall demand is limited, the price is weak and stable; The purchase of titanium tubes for Marine engineering was reduced due to project delay.
Titanium wire: The growth in demand for medical devices has pushed up the price of high-end titanium wire, but the demand for petrochemical welding materials has shrunk.
Second, the demand side: weak domestic demand and foreign trade
1. Domestic demand remains weak
Orders in traditional sectors (chemical, power, and Marine engineering) decreased by 15% to 20% year-on-year, and investment in new projects slowed down.
High-end areas (military, aerospace) bucked the trend of growth, and demand is expected to exceed 20,000 tons in 2025.
2. The foreign trade situation is grim
The United States imposed tariffs: tariffs on imported titanium were raised to 10%, tariffs on some products increased by 40%, export orders plunged, and profit margins contracted.
Upgrade of export restrictions: China restricts the export of high value-added aviation-grade titanium materials, further reducing the development space of foreign trade enterprises.
Third, industry dynamics and competition pattern
1. Outstanding performance of leading enterprises
Leading enterprises benefit from high-end orders and high capacity utilization.
The share price of a head titanium company rose 3.68% this week, breaking through the half-year line, reflecting the market's confidence in the military track.
Industry concentration increased, CR5 accounted for 57%, and competition tilted to technology and research and development.
2. Supply chain reconstruction and cost optimization
Global aviation titanium supply chain reconstruction: the Russia-Ukraine conflict accelerated adjustment, Chinese enterprises to expand international market share to fill the supply gap in Europe and the United States.
Sponge titanium overcapacity: competition intensifies, and large-scale production further compresses the gross profit margin of enterprises.
Fourth, future market outlook and strategy suggestions
1. Price trend
High-end titanium: military and aviation demand pull, the price has risen steadily.
Low-end civilian products: inventory pressure combined with weak domestic demand, prices or continue to shock.
2. Enterprise response strategy
Technology upgrade: Focus on high-end fields such as aerospace and ship titanium, improve added value, and break through export restrictions.
Market diversification: Explore the "Belt and Road" and Southeast Asian markets, and reduce the impact of European and American tariffs.
Inventory management: Control the pace of production capacity release and avoid the vicious circle of low-price competition.
Sum up
This week, the titanium market is seeking a balance in the structural differentiation, and the high-end area has become the core of growth, while the low-end market faces the dual challenges of domestic demand and foreign trade. Enterprises need to seek breakthrough in complex environment through technological innovation and market adjustment.
